Saturday, April 11, 2009

Ammo Under Glass

You may have read my blog post on 10,000 rounds - this isn't about that -really.

Here's the deal: In the past (key word, that) we all had an amount of ammo per weapon that we felt comfortable with. Get below that amount, and we go buy more. If you are like me, you stocked ammo above that comfort point so that if you went out on Saturday and shot a couple boxes, you didn't have to run right out and buy a couple boxes more to "top off".

It is rapidly getting to the point where we cannot just run right out and buy some more. (I believe this is part of the plan - but what do I know? I also understand supply and demand - so where is the increased supply to meet the demand? Maybe the demand was so rapid, the ammo industry cannot keep up. And regardless - it is getting tougher to purchase ammo - not to mention crazy expensive. But I digress...)

I ran into a fellah yesterday who seriously asked me a question that, in retrospect, gave me pause: Where can I buy .45 ammo? This was not some newbie without a clue - this was a man who had gone to this place and that and could not find any. .45 ammo! It's not like it's a rare caliber. He was seriously asking if we knew any place local that had it on the shelves.

And so, I think it may be time to put some ammo behind glass - you know, the glass you break in time of emergency.
I think it's time to set aside some ammo for the time when we will absolutely not be able to get any more.

If you agree with me then it doesn't end there. No, no. We must now decide what we will need ammo for and how much we need to lay aside.

Let's take .45 ammo for my buddy. Let's also assume that firearms and ammo are not illegal - they are just unavailable. (Insert dark, evil, snickering Overlord here)

We all need to stay tuned up on our handguns - we need to practice. Yes, we can practice with .22 to an extent - but we must keep coming back to full power loads to handle the dynamics of shooting our chosen caliber. Some friends of mine shoot 1,000 rounds per week (they don't buy their own ammo). I suspect you will shoot less. Heck, you may not even shoot every week. Most especially when you can't replace what you are shooting. But you do have a number of rounds you would like to practice with yearly regardless. And you can envision how long the ammo crisis could go on. Multiply.

You also can determine how much ammo you may realistically need to shoot in anger over the span of your lifetime - it's not much and now you can refer to 10,000 Rounds. Add that number to your previous number.

I think you could also add in a 10% buffer.

Some of you more enlightened readers are no doubt now talking to your monitors and saying, "Yes, Joe - this is why we reload".

To which I reply, "Yes, but you still have to do the math - how much are you going to have to reload?" I understand buying primers is just as difficult of late as buying rounds.

I have not done the numbers for myself but I sure hope I don't end up with a number like........10,000 rounds.

Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal: But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal: For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. - Matthew 6:19 - 21


If you have any comments I’d love to hear them.
If they really interest me, I may even post them.
You can reach me at Joe

You can also join us to discuss this and other issues at Viking Preparedness Forums

Prepared Americans for a Strong America


At 11/4/09 07:32, Blogger Blackeagle said...

I think there are a couple of reasons supply hasn't increased to meet demand. For one, demand spiked just as the credit markets really went to hell. In order for manufacturers to increase production, they need capital for factories and equipment, money for materials and workers, etc. Yet this came at a time when business credit was hard to come by. Expanding by recycling profits into increased production capacity is possible, but it takes a lot longer.

The second reason is that I think this increase in demand for firearms and ammunition is temporary. I think the gun ammo manufacturers think so too. The election and the bad economy brought a bunch of new people into the gun/ammo market and convinced people already here that they needed more guns (particularly black rifles) and ammo. However, this sort of growth just isn't sustainable. Eventually the market is going to end up saturated (there are signs of this in the black rifle market already), people will stop buying, the bubble will pop, and prices will drop. The way bubbles work, demand will probably drop well below what it was before the election for a while as customers work through excess inventories. If gun and ammo companies treat this growth as if it's a permanent condition they're going to end up like the housing industry when the bubble pops. I think smart people in gun companies know this. They're doing what they can to increase production, but only in ways that won't be difficult to roll back if demand drops. Add another shift, but don't build a new factory.

Both of these limit the amount that gun and ammo production can increase in the short term.

At 12/4/09 08:50, Blogger Mayberry said...

Blackeagle (hopefully!) makes good points there.... But I do think it very prudent to keep some "emergency use only" ammo set aside. One thing I like about those 7.62x54r "sardine cans" I've got, you REALLY gotta want to get into those things!

At 13/4/09 06:46, Blogger Bitmap said...

You might want to set some aside for your kids, too.


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